Predictions...

When predicting the future, it’s best to expect to be wrong. Had you asked me in 2000 whether or not we’d have landed on Mars, I’d have probably answered with a firm ‘yes’; I’d certainly have thought that such a mission would be in advanced planning, with hardware under construction, test flights in progress. If you’d have told me that the United States would still be more than a year away from the ability to put man in space – and that NASA would be at least five years away – I wouldn’t have believed you. It’s fortunate indeed that SpaceX is filling the gap; I don’t think there are particularly good odds on Orion ever flying.

I’m choosing to set a book in 2030; that means I have to make some predictions about the way things are going to turn out. Ultimately, I’m going to go with the safe option, and predict ‘more of the same’ in an international context. China will continue to gain ground economically and strategically, and it will be far more of a bipolar world than it currently is. India will be advancing fast, but still behind, and I believe Russia on the brink of a resurgence, especially as oil prices rise once more. It will be a world that looks a lot more like 1980 than 2000; conflict between superpowers building once again. At some point, there will have been another land war on the scale of Iraq or Afghanistan; I can think of a dozen potential flashpoints around the world, but I’ll go for Venezuela. That’s a situation that is close to home for the United States, and one that is likely to get a lot worse before it gets better.

Of more importance – and ground I feel somewhat safer on – will be the ‘state of the cosmos’. There will be at least one, possibly even two or three commercial space stations, though quasi-commercial might be a better way of putting it, as I still believe governmental assistance will be required. ISS will be no more, though some of its newer modules will probably survive on new stations. Pick two of the United States, Russia and China – perhaps even all three, though I suspect two of the three will end up joining forces. Add Europe, Japan, India, Canada to the mix as partners. A good chance for Brazil, as well.

That’s where I think we’ll be, but I’m going to have to be a lot more decisive than that for the book itself – so I’m going to shoot for three stations in orbit over the Earth, one of them in a rather different orbit than the others. Two semi-commercial stations, one a consortium led by NASA, with CSA, BSA and a collection of corporate partners. This one primarily research-focused; tourists generally fly to the other one, which uses Russian architecture, though with a much stronger corporate influence. (Whatever you can say about the Russian space program, they know their space stations – I’d be astonished if one of the major space development corporations doesn’t buy into that hardware.) The third? Deep Space Gateway, of course, though for the purposes of the book...it isn’t a NASA project, but a sucker punch by China, Russia and Europe. The US takes too long to make the decision on proceeding with the project, and a different consortium does it instead – with the avowed goal of a return to the Moon in the 2030s. (Hey, I’ve got to think of some sort of political context for Mars Mission approval. The line ‘let them have the Moon, we’re going to Mars’ is a good one.)

Spaceplanes will be close, but not there yet; I like the Skylon concept, and development is certainly taking place, and I can see that as a project coming to fruition in the 2030s. Potentially in time to play a role in some of the later Mars missions, but not in time to have an impact on the architecture itself. Someone will be thinking about a third LEO station, and someone will be planning that landing on the moon – if a Deep Space Gateway is built, it does make that easier. (Personally, I’d prefer Mars, but...well, going somewhere is better than going nowhere! I’ll cheer on a Return to Luna program if someone seriously pushes it.)

In terms of further beyond, that’s harder to predict, except that there will be probes heading to the outer solar system. Probably more work on Venus, more orbiters, maybe surface landers – though sample return would be a nightmare, someone might be working on it. (A return of some of the Venusian atmosphere is probably a lot more practical; that might be possible in this timeframe.) There will be probes at Jupiter and Saturn, almost certainly, and toss a coin between Uranus and Neptune, though my money is on the more distant target, if only because of the launch windows. There’s a big dry patch for gravity-assist Neptune missions in the 2030s, so I can see someone trying to get a Neptune orbiter away before it closes; Uranus is possible later, and could wait a few more years.

And, of course, NASA is trying for Mars...